Latest Update

Hello All.

All six sunspot groups remain visible but only region 1393 increased in size 100 to 250 millionths and is now a DKI type group.

Ten small C class solar flares took place yesterday from region 1388, 1389 and 1393 which produced the most. The flare from yesterday morning (see above) could have been caused by a filament eruption as now the 'active region' is very small again. The are no signs of this group showing any activity despite its closeness to the south-east limb on the SDO images.

Further C class solar flares are expected today.

Image below from STEREO shows the area of interest.

73 de Neil, G0CAS.

Hello All.

New region 1395 is the only region in the eastern hemisphere, this region produced a C2 solar flare peaking at 2013z.  Regions 1391 and 1393 have also produced the occasional small C class solar flares.

Further C class solar flares are expected.

Image below from SOHO shows all the numbered region visible.

73 de Neil, G0CAS

Hello All.

Sunspot region 1388 rotated out of view yesterday over the south-west limb. Currentley five regions are visible. Over the last 24 hours hours all regions show little change except for region 1393, which more than doubled in size from 250 to 520 millionths. It is now a EKI type group. This group and region 1391 increased magnetically to Beta-Gamma type groups.

Only 5 small C class solar flares took place yesterday, more are expected today, With two Beta-Gamma type groups there is a chance of an M class solar flare, though at this stage one is possible but unlikely.

Image below from the SDO shows regions 1391 and 1393.

73 de Neil, G0CAS.

Hello All.

Regions 1392 and 1394 decayed and disappeared yesterday. Region 1393 is now approaching the north-west limb and retained its Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration, unlike region 1391 which lost it and returned to a Beta magnetic configuration. All groups remained more or less the same is size.

Only 3 small C class solar flares took place yesterday. However, this morning 3 solar flares have taken place including a C3 peaking at 0446z. All these flares have taken place from regions 1392 (spotless plage) or 1393.

Further C class solar flares are expected today.

Solar flux levels declined to 129 units from 142 the previous day.

Image below from the SDO shows the C3 solar flare, (see above).

73 de Neil, G0CAS.

Hello All.

Region 1393 as just about rotated out of view. Currently this is the largest largest sunspot group visible. A single spot group as emerged in the north-east limb. However, there is a new 'active region' just behind the north-east limb. This is the source of a C2 (still in progress) solar flare. This 'active region' is within a day of rotating into view.

Further C class solar flares are expected over the coming days. An assessment of this new region will be made once it rotates into view.

Image below from the SDO shows the C2 solar flare from just behind the north-east limb, (upper left).

73 de Neil, G0CAS.

Hello All.

The major event today was the long duration C2 solar flare that took place from an 'active region' just behind the north-east limb. Even though the flare was not very strong it did last for over 6 hours. It also produced a coronal mass ejection.

Further C class solar flares are expected for the next few days.

Image below from STEREO shows the coronal mass ejection from the solar flare.

73 de Neil, G0CAS.

Hello All.

It is unlikely that the coronal mass ejection from the C2 long duration solar flare yesterday will head our way, however, a glancing blow can not be totally ruled out.

Two C class solar flares have taken place this morning, the first from the same area as the C2 long duration flare from yesterday and the second from close to the west limb.

A very small geomagnetic disturbance arriver around 1800 hours yesterday. The 3 hourly Kp indices never went higher than 2.

The graph below illustrates the length of the C2 solar flare from yesterday.

73 de Neil, G0CAS.

Hello All.

Several very small C class solar flares have taken place today from an area from just behind the north-east limb. Also, a B class solar flare took place from the south-east limb where a new spot/region is rotating into view.

A coronal hole is now at the central meridian, the geomagnetic effects from this is expected to arrive around the 16th of January. Only a modest disturbance is expected.

Image below from the SDO shows the coronal hole. Also in the image can be seen the region rotating into view over the SE limb, (lower left).

73 de Neil, G0CAS.

Hello All.

Two new regions were numbered 1397 and 1395 yesterday. Both are DAO/Beta type groups, region 1397 at 40 millionths and 1398 at 15 millionths. Both these regions emerged onto the solar disc. Also a new small region rotated over the south-east limb but was not numbered.

Four small C class solar flares are took place yesterday. More expected today from a number of possible locations.

Sometime tomorrow should see the arrival of the coronal hole disturbance.

Image below from GOES 15 shows the coronal hole (near centre) and the limb activity especially on the north-east (upper left).

73 de Neil, G0CAS.

Hello All.

A M1 solar flare peaked at 1318z today from an 'active region' which is in the process of rotating into view. A large spot is now visible at 19 degrees north. This is the same region that produced the long duration C2 solar flare on the 12th.

Further C class and the occasional M class solar flares are expected over the coming days.

Image below from the SDO shows the location of the M1 solar flare from the NE limb, (upper left). Later today i will post an image of this new group.

73 de Neil, G0CAS.

Hello All.

A C2 solar flare as taken place from the same region of the earlier M1 solar flare.

Image below from the SDO shows a second larger sunspot (circled) which is right on the solar limb.

Further C class and occasional M class solar flares are expected. A more detailed forecast will be made once this region is fully in view. For now an X class flare is unlikely but this could change once the region as rotated fully onto the visible solar disc.

73 de Neil, G0CAS.

Hello All.

Four new groups were numbered yesterday, plus the other 5 groups currently visible make 9 groups in total. Regions 1399 and 1400 emerged onto the solar disc, but regions 1401 and 1402 rotated over the north-east limb. These two groups over recent days have been producing solar flares as seen from the STEREO Behind spacecraft. Out of these two regions, 1401 appears to be the most active.

Region 1401 is located at 15 degrees north and heliographic longitude of 215 degrees. Region 1402 is at north 26 degrees and heliographic 212 degrees. Interestingly, large groups at or around 210 to 220 degrees heliographic longitude seem more capable (though not always) of producing major solar flares.

Further C class, occasional M class and a very isolated chance of an X class flares are possible over the coming days.

Image below from the SDO shows a close up of regions 1401 and 1402.

73 de Neil, G0CAS.

Hello All.

Region 1391 rotated over the north-west limb and is due to return around the 31st. Region 1403 emerged yesterday as a small BXO type group at 10 millionths. Also a new spot/group rotated into view close to the two large regions over the north-east limb but was not numbered.

The main interest for now are the two regions 1401 and 1402. Both regions increased in size yesterday but were mostly quiet yesterday only producing small C class solar flares.

This morning region 1402 produced a long duration C6 solar flare which lasted for several hours. Associated with this flare was a large coronal mass ejection. At this early stage it is too early to say whether it is heading our way or not

Images below from STEREO shows the large coronal mass ejection.

73 de Neil, G0CAS.

Hello All.

Regions 1397, 1400 and 1403 decayed and disappeared yesterday. However, two new regions were numbered 1404 1405 yesterday. Both are small and quiet.

Regions 1401 and 1402 are the largest spots currently visible. Both regions doubled in size during the last 24 hours. Both groups could be developing a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration.

Severn C class solar flares took place yesterday. This morning peaking at 0454z region 1401 produced a M1 solar flare. Further C class and occasional M class solar flares are expected.

Yesterdays long duration C6 solar flare that produced a coronal mass ejection. It is now thought possible that Earth could get a glancing blow late on the 19th from the CME.

Image below from the SDO show regions 1401, 1402 and 1405.

73 de Neil, G0CAS.

Hello All.

New region 1406 emerged as a small sunspot group.There are now 9 visible region.

Regions 1401 increased by 60 millionths and region 1402 increased by 150 millionths and dominate the solar disc. Both these regions increased in magnetic complexity to a Beta-gamma. All the other regions showed little change.

In total 4 C class solar flares took place along with the M1 flare. Most of the activity occurred from region 1401 but a C1 solar flare took place from region 1045.

Further C class and a slight chance of a M class solar flares are expected.

Images below are from the SDO and shows regions 1401, 1402 and 1405. See image above for region numbers.

73 de Neil, G0CAS.

Hello All.

Region 1401 produced a M1 solar flare peaking at 1912z. Also region 1396 produced a C5 at 2320z.

Further C class and occasional M class solar flares are expected.

Image below from the SDO shows the M1 solar flare at 1912z.

73 de Neil, G0CAS.

Hello All.

New region 1407 emerged as a small BXO type group at 10 millionths in size.

Both regions 1401 and 1402 which are the two largest groups visible reduced in size slightly over the last 24 hours. Magnetically region 1402 returned to just a Beta type group.

Most of the solar flare activity took place from regions 1401 and 1402 but region 1396 also produced a C1 solar flare.

Further C class and the occasional M class solar flares is expected.

Image today shows the area effected by the sudden ionospheric disturbance associated with the M1 solar flare yesterday. As always click on the image to enlarge.

73 de Neil, G0CAS.

Hello All.

Region 1402 produced a long duration M3 class solar flare peaking at 1605z. The flare began at 1341z and ended at 1749z.

Also with this solar flare a large coronal mass ejection took place.

Further occasional M class solar flares are expected.

Images below are from both of the STEREO spacecraft showing the coronal mass ejection.

73 de Neil, G0CAS.

Hello All.

There appears to be some confusion from where the M3 solar flare from this afternoon took place. I have seen some web sites that say region 1401 and others that say region 1402. The two regions are close together with regions 1405 and 1407 also not that far away.

Image below shows the M3 solar flare and the region of the source of the flare.

73 de Neil, G0CAS.